Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.03
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.94
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
18%
4.62
X/2
9%
6.85
X/X
11%
4.34
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
19%
5.13
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.4pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.86/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.98
-8% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / -31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
14.7 Crosses 13.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.73 xG 1.33
45% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 Passes 413
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
08.10.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-2 HT 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
15.07.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova PLS
02.05.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
01.04.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-1 HT 2-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
11.09.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
06.04.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
1-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.48 xG 0.51
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
422 Passes 282
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa and Legia Varşova couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rakow Czestochowa at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 57% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 43%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.48 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.67 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova?

Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 43%, draw 23%, Legia Varşova 34%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ BTTS No
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