Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

Vitoria Guimaraes
1-1 HT 0-1
Farense
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.72
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.27 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.96
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.75
X/1
17%
3.8
X/2
6%
11.3
X/X
11%
5.54
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
9%
8.83
2/X
6%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-6.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Farense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.67/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.81
-5% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -32%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
22.3 Crosses 18.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Farense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.38 xG 1.62
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
351 Passes 252
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
06.05.2021 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR
17.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR
18.01.2002 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 1-1 Farense Farense POR
20.08.2001 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Farense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-1
AWAY Farense
1.27 xG 0.91
69% Ball Possession 31%
22 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 1
450 Passes 167
85% Pass Accuracy 67%
39 Box Touches 12
38 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes and Farense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 69% of the ball to Farense's 31%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 1.27 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.33 for Farense.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 53%, draw 24%, Farense 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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