Estoril 0-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
47%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.3
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
14%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.76
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.45
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
8%
9.48
X/2
13%
4.19
X/X
10%
5.6
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.17
2/X
7%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.45 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+5.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
47%
Away Win
54%
-7.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 58%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
0.95/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.17
-76% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
18.5 Crosses 19.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.61 xG 1.96
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 Passes 467
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril PORLC
03.12.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
08.04.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
22.10.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
18.04.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
05.12.2021 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 2-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
0-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
46% Ball Possession 54%
4 Total Shots 12
0 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
399 Passes 487
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Estoril 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estoril had 46% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 54%, shots finished 4-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Estoril and 2.00 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Sporting Braga?

Estoril 0-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Estoril 28%, draw 25%, Sporting Braga 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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