Keçiörengücü 2-1 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

Keçiörengücü
2-1 HT 1-1
Gençlerbirliği
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Keçiörengücü vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 32% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.66
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
13%
5.3
X/2
13%
5.72
X/X
12%
4.12
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
14%
4.08
2/X
8%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.1pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.6pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Keçiörengücü v Gençlerbirliği — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.20/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.25
+10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
18.0 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Keçiörengücü vs Gençlerbirliği Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 1.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
299 Passes 295
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
27.11.2023 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-1 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
25.03.2023 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 2-2 HT 1-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
15.10.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 0-2 HT 0-1 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
09.04.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-0 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
07.11.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 2-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L

Keçiörengücü 2-1 Gençlerbirliği — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
2-1
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.06 xG 0.72
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
281 Passes 353
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü edged past Gençlerbirliği 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Keçiörengücü found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 45% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 55%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 1.06 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Keçiörengücü had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.00 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Gençlerbirliği?

Keçiörengücü 2-1 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 35%, draw 31%, Gençlerbirliği 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keçiörengücü) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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