MKE Ankaragücü 3-1 Gaziantep FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 31% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.44
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
12%
4.1
X/2
9%
8.36
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
13%
6.65
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
51%
-8.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.3pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.36/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.62
-17% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
21.6 Crosses 16.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gaziantep FK
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.19 xG 1.53
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
331 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.11.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 0-1 HT 0-1 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
28.01.2023 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 0-2 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
14.08.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-0 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
29.04.2021 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 0-1 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
05.01.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-0 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
14.06.2020 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-1 HT 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
3-1
AWAY Gaziantep FK
1.67 xG 0.90
70% Ball Possession 30%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
545 Passes 178
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MKE Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MKE Ankaragücü beat Gaziantep FK 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had MKE Ankaragücü as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MKE Ankaragücü had 70% of the ball to Gaziantep FK's 30%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.67 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gaziantep FK led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for MKE Ankaragücü and 1.17 for Gaziantep FK.

What was the final score of MKE Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK?

MKE Ankaragücü 3-1 Gaziantep FK in the Turkey - Super League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MKE Ankaragücü vs Gaziantep FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a MKE Ankaragücü win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split MKE Ankaragücü 42%, draw 28%, Gaziantep FK 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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