Orlando Pirates 1-0 Marumo Gallants — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Cup, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.56
Over 2.5
51%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
3.05
No
51%
1.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.32
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
54%
1.74
4-5 Goals
15%
4.74
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.74 — our 54% vs market 48.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.0pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.4pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
60%
-11.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
40%
+11.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
29%
+20.6pp
51%
BTTS No
71%
-20.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Marumo Gallants EU Bookmakers 11%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
1.92/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.28/2.03
+12% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
474 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 193 · 62%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
9.0 Crosses 8.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando Pirates
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Marumo Gallants
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.90 xG 0.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
382 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2025 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 2-0 HT 1-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
24.12.2024 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 8-1 HT 1-1 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAFPSL
28.01.2023 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 0-2 HT 0-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
24.08.2022 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-0 HT 1-0 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAFPSL
09.03.2022 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 1-1 HT 1-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAF8K
20.12.2021 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 2-1 HT 2-1 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando Pirates
1-0
AWAY Marumo Gallants
0.31 xG 0.27
58% Ball Possession 42%
5 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
386 Passes 241
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 12
6 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orlando Pirates vs Marumo Gallants
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando Pirates squeezed past Marumo Gallants 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Orlando Pirates as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Orlando Pirates had 58% of the ball to Marumo Gallants's 42%, shots finished 5-4, expected goals 0.31 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando Pirates had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Orlando Pirates and 0.83 for Marumo Gallants.

What was the final score of Orlando Pirates vs Marumo Gallants?

Orlando Pirates 1-0 Marumo Gallants in the South Afrika - Cup on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando Pirates vs Marumo Gallants?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando Pirates win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Orlando Pirates 61%, draw 22%, Marumo Gallants 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando Pirates), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orlando Pirates) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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