Mamelodi Sundowns 1-2 Kaizer Chiefs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Cup, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.45
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.53
No
59%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.46
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.42
6+ Goals
7%
23.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
27%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
65%
-8.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
36%
+5.5pp
59%
BTTS No
64%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaizer Chiefs EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-64% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
43.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.9 Crosses
0.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Kaizer Chiefs
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.46 xG 1.01
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
457 Passes 201
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 1-0 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAFPSL
02.11.2024 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 0-4 HT 0-3 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFLK
28.09.2024 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-2 HT 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
02.05.2024 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-5 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
23.09.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 2-1 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAF8K
02.09.2023 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-2
AWAY Kaizer Chiefs
0.64 xG 1.33
64% Ball Possession 36%
5 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
409 Passes 196
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
8 Box Touches 10
7 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kaizer Chiefs edged past Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Mamelodi Sundowns carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 64% of the ball to Kaizer Chiefs's 36%, shots finished 5-5, expected goals 0.64 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.67 for Kaizer Chiefs.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-2 Kaizer Chiefs in the South Afrika - Cup on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 57%, draw 25%, Kaizer Chiefs 18%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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