Kaizer Chiefs 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.13
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
53%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.13
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
21%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
53%
Away Win
52%
+1.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.3pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kaizer Chiefs EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 56%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +17%
1.08/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.93
+12% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +44%
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
197 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 83%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
11.3 Crosses 17.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kaizer Chiefs
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.90 xG 1.65
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
199 Passes 463
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
02.05.2024 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-5 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
23.09.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 2-1 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAF8K
02.09.2023 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
09.08.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 1-0 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAFPSL
21.01.2023 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 0-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
13.08.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 2-0 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kaizer Chiefs
1-2
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
1.40 xG 0.83
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
243 Passes 392
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns squeezed past Kaizer Chiefs 2-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kaizer Chiefs had 40% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 60%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.40 to 0.83 — the balance of chances actually favoured Kaizer Chiefs.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kaizer Chiefs and 2.50 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Kaizer Chiefs 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns in the South Afrika - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Kaizer Chiefs 20%, draw 27%, Mamelodi Sundowns 53%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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