Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Kaizer Chiefs — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.13
No
64%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.83
6+ Goals
8%
17.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 34% vs market 29.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.0pp
36%
BTTS Yes
43%
-6.9pp
64%
BTTS No
57%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaizer Chiefs EU Bookmakers 18%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.60/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.00
+30% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 72%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
14.6 Crosses 13.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Kaizer Chiefs
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 0.97
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
470 Passes 178
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2024 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 0-4 HT 0-3 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFLK
28.09.2024 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-2 HT 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
02.05.2024 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-5 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
23.09.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 2-1 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAF8K
02.09.2023 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
09.08.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 1-0 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-0
AWAY Kaizer Chiefs
1.10 xG 0.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
371 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 19
3 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns nicked a narrow win over Kaizer Chiefs 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 56% of the ball to Kaizer Chiefs's 44%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 1.10 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.83 for Kaizer Chiefs.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Kaizer Chiefs in the South Afrika - Premier League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 56%, draw 24%, Kaizer Chiefs 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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