Kwara United 0-1 Bendel Insurance — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
Over 2.5
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.51
No
51%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.4pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.9pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
36%
+13.8pp
51%
BTTS No
64%
-13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kwara United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Bendel Insurance EU Bookmakers 22%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.32/0.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.08
+0% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -41%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kwara United
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Bendel Insurance
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
5 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
23.11.2024 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance 3-1 HT 2-1 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
07.04.2024 Kwara United Kwara United 1-1 HT 0-1 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance NIJ
POST-MATCH Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bendel Insurance squeezed past Kwara United 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Kwara United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bendel Insurance led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kwara United and 2.00 for Bendel Insurance.

What was the final score of Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance?

Kwara United 0-1 Bendel Insurance in the Nigeria NPFL on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kwara United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Kwara United 48%, draw 32%, Bendel Insurance 20%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Kwara United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kwara United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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