Vizela 1-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-9.3pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.6pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.84/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.47
+20% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +38%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 10.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Alverca
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
30.11.2024 Alverca Alverca 4-2 HT 4-1 Vizela Vizela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
1-1
AWAY Alverca
0.71 xG 2.39
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 7
344 Passes 137
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela and Alverca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Vizela at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Vizela had 65% of the ball to Alverca's 35%, shots finished 17-20, expected goals 0.71 to 2.39.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Alverca?

Vizela 1-1 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vizela 45%, draw 29%, Alverca 26%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vizela) ✗ Over 2.5
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