Deportes Tolima 1-1 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 13 May 2024

📅13/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-9.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.0pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +13%
1.21/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.13
+2% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
17.4 Crosses 13.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
327 Passes 283
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
22.07.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
31.01.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.09.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
23.03.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 0-2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
09.10.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-1
AWAY Once Caldas
1.54 xG 1.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
344 Passes 251
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima and Once Caldas shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 55% of the ball to Once Caldas's 45%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.54 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.00 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Deportes Tolima 1-1 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 46%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportes Tolima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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