Cruz Azul 2-2 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 May 2024

Cruz Azul
2-2 HT 0-0
Pumas UNAM
📅13/05/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.86
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.86 — our 27% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.61
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
16%
4.82
X/2
10%
7.55
X/X
10%
5.61
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
9%
4.87
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
48%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
24%
Away Win
28%
-4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.9pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruz Azul v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.54/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.43
-13% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
19.6 Crosses 18.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8

Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.43 xG 1.10
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.05.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-2 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
31.03.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
08.10.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-4 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
12.03.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
19.09.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-2 HT 0-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
13.04.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM Kuzey / Orta Amerika - CONCACAF Şampiyonlar Ligi

Cruz Azul 2-2 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
2-2
AWAY Pumas UNAM
2.64 xG 0.92
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
273 Passes 422
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul and Pumas UNAM couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 42% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 58%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 2.64 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.83 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM?

Cruz Azul 2-2 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 52%, draw 24%, Pumas UNAM 24%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruz Azul), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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