Angostura FC 3-4 Portuguesa FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 13 May 2024

📅13/05/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+2.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Angostura FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Portuguesa FC EU Bookmakers 33%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +19%
1.43/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.11
-28% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +59%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
23.3 Crosses 12.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Angostura FC
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Portuguesa FC
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.73 xG 0.92
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
314 Passes 261
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
06.05.2024 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Angostura FC Angostura FC VEN
03.03.2024 Angostura FC Angostura FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC VEN
30.09.2023 Angostura FC Angostura FC 1-2 HT 0-2 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC VEN
12.02.2023 Portuguesa FC Portuguesa FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Angostura FC Angostura FC VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Angostura FC
3-4
AWAY Portuguesa FC
1.62 xG 2.85
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
283 Passes 281
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Angostura FC vs Portuguesa FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portuguesa FC squeezed past Angostura FC 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Angostura FC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Angostura FC had 51% of the ball to Portuguesa FC's 49%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.62 to 2.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Portuguesa FC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Angostura FC and 1.00 for Portuguesa FC.

What was the final score of Angostura FC vs Portuguesa FC?

Angostura FC 3-4 Portuguesa FC in the Venezuela - Premier League on 13/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Angostura FC vs Portuguesa FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Angostura FC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Angostura FC 45%, draw 25%, Portuguesa FC 30%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Angostura FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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