FC Tokyo 2-0 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 31% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.06
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
15%
4.91
X/2
13%
6.38
X/X
14%
4.9
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
9%
4.41
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.3pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.53/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.41
+4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 449 · 84%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
18.2 Crosses 16.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 0.53
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
330 Passes 448
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
11.11.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.04.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 2-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.05.2018 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
14.03.2018 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
30.07.2017 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
2-0
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.54 xG 0.75
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
292 Passes 654
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
13 Box Touches 20
9 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo saw off Albirex Niigata 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Tokyo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 33% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 67%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.54 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.00 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Albirex Niigata?

FC Tokyo 2-0 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 43%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tokyo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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