Albirex Niigata 1-3 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.29
6+ Goals
9%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.16
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
9%
4.66
X/2
9%
6.34
X/X
15%
4.12
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
17%
4.88
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.4pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.00/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.14
-23% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
20.2 Crosses 14.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
1W-2D-3L
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.53 xG 0.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
366 Passes 321
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.04.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 2-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.05.2018 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
14.03.2018 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
30.07.2017 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
22.04.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-3
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.54 xG 1.03
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
560 Passes 281
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo saw off Albirex Niigata 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 31% / 32% — and on the day FC Tokyo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 64% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 36%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.54 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.50 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs FC Tokyo?

Albirex Niigata 1-3 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 37%, draw 31%, FC Tokyo 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
27 Apr 2024
07:00 Consadole Sapporo vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →
08:00 Vissel Kobe vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →
08:00 Jubilo Iwata vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
09:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →