FK Orenburg 2-3 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.29
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.58
6+ Goals
12%
14.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 25% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+9.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 51%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.87/2.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.29/0.60
-13% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +138% / +37%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
254 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.17 xG 2.38
52% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
302 Passes 286
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 27
28 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
17.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
16.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-4 HT 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
28.08.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 5-1 HT 3-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
21.06.2020 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
22.09.2019 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-3
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow nicked a narrow win over FK Orenburg 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Lokomotiv Moscow found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 51% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 49%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

FK Orenburg 2-3 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 36%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Moscow 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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