Moritanya 1-0 Burkina Faso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Championship, 13 Aug 2025

📅13/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.48
Over 2.5
32%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
15%
5.45
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+6.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.9pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-8.1pp
68%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.8pp
32%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.5pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moritanya EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Burkina Faso EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-56% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
258 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
5.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.5 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moritanya
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Burkina Faso
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.55 xG 1.13
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
165 Passes 332
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.01.2024 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 1-0 HT 0-0 Moritanya Moritanya AFUK
17.10.2023 Moritanya Moritanya 1-2 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso HAZ
22.03.2019 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 1-0 HT 1-0 Moritanya Moritanya AFUK
08.09.2018 Moritanya Moritanya 2-0 HT 2-0 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moritanya
1-0
AWAY Burkina Faso
1.24 xG 1.13
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
358 Passes 193
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
9 Box Touches 15
8 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Moritanya vs Burkina Faso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moritanya edged past Burkina Faso 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 31% / 36% — and on the day Moritanya made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Moritanya had 60% of the ball to Burkina Faso's 40%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.24 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Burkina Faso led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Moritanya and 1.00 for Burkina Faso.

What was the final score of Moritanya vs Burkina Faso?

Moritanya 1-0 Burkina Faso in the Afrika Uluslar Championship on 13/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moritanya vs Burkina Faso?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Moritanya 33%, draw 31%, Burkina Faso 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Burkina Faso) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burkina Faso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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