Burkina Faso 1-0 Moritanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 16 Jan 2024

📅16/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.41
Over 2.5
36%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.44
No
55%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
17%
6.99
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.72
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
4%
16.95
X/1
18%
3.74
X/2
4%
7.8
X/X
18%
3.41
2/1
10%
34.0
2/2
9%
7.42
2/X
10%
17.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.7pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.5pp
21%
Away Win
22%
-0.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
67%
-3.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
33%
+3.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
37%
+8.0pp
55%
BTTS No
63%
-8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burkina Faso EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Moritanya EU Bookmakers 25%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.27/0.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/2.25
+1% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -47%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
334 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
15.4 Crosses 8.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burkina Faso
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Moritanya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.10.2023 Moritanya Moritanya 1-2 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso HAZ
22.03.2019 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 1-0 HT 1-0 Moritanya Moritanya AFUK
08.09.2018 Moritanya Moritanya 2-0 HT 2-0 Burkina Faso Burkina Faso AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burkina Faso
1-0
AWAY Moritanya
1.13 xG 0.55
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
332 Passes 165
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burkina Faso vs Moritanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burkina Faso nicked a narrow win over Moritanya 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Burkina Faso as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Burkina Faso had 62% of the ball to Moritanya's 38%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.13 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Burkina Faso had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burkina Faso and 1.00 for Moritanya.

What was the final score of Burkina Faso vs Moritanya?

Burkina Faso 1-0 Moritanya in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burkina Faso vs Moritanya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burkina Faso win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Burkina Faso 47%, draw 32%, Moritanya 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burkina Faso), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Burkina Faso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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