Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.82
Over 2.5
56%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-2.5pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.8pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+6.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
51%
-7.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
49%
+7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 21%
-52% / -52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
0.51/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.66
-76% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Kapaz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
05.04.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-2 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
05.02.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 3-1 HT 2-1 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
10.11.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 0-1 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
03.09.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-2 HT 0-2 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan squeezed past Kapaz 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Araz Nahçıvan as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Kapaz led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 1.75 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Kapaz?

Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Araz Nahçıvan win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 57%, draw 20%, Kapaz 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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