Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-3 Hebar 1918 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.4pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.9pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Hebar 1918 EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.29/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.44
+38% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
276 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Hebar 1918
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.02.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 1-0 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 BUL1
25.08.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 3-4 HT 3-4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3-3
AWAY Hebar 1918
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Hebar 1918
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Hebar 1918 couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 65% of the ball to Hebar 1918's 35%, shots finished 18-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 2.50 for Hebar 1918.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Hebar 1918?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-3 Hebar 1918 in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Hebar 1918?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 50%, draw 27%, Hebar 1918 23%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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