Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Hebar 1918 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒13:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
3%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-7.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+7.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Hebar 1918 EU Bookmakers 20%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.36/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.65
+42% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +144% / -2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
414 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Hebar 1918
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 3-4 HT 3-4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-2
AWAY Hebar 1918
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Hebar 1918
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hebar 1918 nicked a narrow win over Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 53% of the ball to Hebar 1918's 47%, shots finished 15-10.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Hebar 1918?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Hebar 1918 in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Hebar 1918?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 55%, draw 23%, Hebar 1918 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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