Cherno More Varna 1-0 CSKA Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
36%
2.94
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.45
Over 2.5
37%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.16
No
52%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
50%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
23%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.9pp
36%
Draw
31%
+4.9pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-5.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
65%
-2.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
35%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Sofia EU Bookmakers 40%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +50% / +50%
0.53/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-51% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 6.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
1W-1D-1L
AWAY CSKA Sofia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1-1 HT 1-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
15.05.2023 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 2-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
04.04.2023 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1-2 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BULK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-0
AWAY CSKA Sofia
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs CSKA Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna edged past CSKA Sofia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 36% / 31%) promised a tight game; Cherno More Varna found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 53% of the ball to CSKA Sofia's 47%, shots finished 7-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.33 for CSKA Sofia.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs CSKA Sofia?

Cherno More Varna 1-0 CSKA Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs CSKA Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 33%, draw 36%, CSKA Sofia 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
24 Feb 2024
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