Al Nassr 1-1 Al Ahli Jeddah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 13 Sep 2024

Al Nassr
1-1 HT 0-0
Al Ahli Jeddah
📅13/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League – 2024/2025

Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.43
Over 2.5
49%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
5.28
2-3 Goals
42%
1.98
4-5 Goals
24%
2.7
6+ Goals
11%
6.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.28 — our 23% vs market 14.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.8pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Nassr v Al Ahli Jeddah — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.80/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.66
+31% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -10%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
412 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
18.9 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.55 xG 1.46
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
372 Passes 267
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.03.2024 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
22.09.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-3 HT 3-1 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
28.05.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
26.11.2021 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-2 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
11.03.2021 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
12.12.2020 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD

Al Nassr 1-1 Al Ahli Jeddah — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
1-1
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
2.05 xG 0.21
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
365 Passes 254
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 16
35 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr and Al Ahli Jeddah couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Al Nassr at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Al Nassr had 58% of the ball to Al Ahli Jeddah's 42%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.05 to 0.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Al Nassr and 1.33 for Al Ahli Jeddah.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Al Nassr 1-1 Al Ahli Jeddah in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 49%, draw 24%, Al Ahli Jeddah 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Nassr) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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