Dender EH 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
5.91
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
58%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.32
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 30% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
11.8
1/2
7%
23.2
1/X
8%
20.15
X/1
4%
13.35
X/2
23%
3.75
X/X
11%
5.78
2/1
3%
34.5
2/2
27%
1.75
2/X
9%
17.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
14%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.9pp
58%
Away Win
66%
-7.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.7pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dender EH EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 70%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.15/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.10/0.78
-41% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +15%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 82%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
17.7 Crosses 17.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dender EH
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.39 xG 2.51
37% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 4
224 Passes 492
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 36
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 HT 2-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
27.07.2024 Dender EH Dender EH 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dender EH
0-1
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.08 xG 1.82
36% Ball Possession 64%
4 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
203 Passes 469
64% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 38
14 Crosses 29
POST-MATCH Dender EH vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise edged past Dender EH 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dender EH had 36% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 64%, shots finished 4-18, expected goals 0.08 to 1.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Dender EH and 2.00 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Dender EH vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Dender EH 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dender EH vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Dender EH 15%, draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 58%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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