Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 Dender EH — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.04
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.05
X/1
15%
3.83
X/2
5%
14.6
X/X
13%
6.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
21.45
2/2
11%
12.3
2/X
10%
20.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 15% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-14.7pp
28%
Draw
19%
+8.8pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.6pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Dender EH EU Bookmakers 17%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
2.09/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.92
-15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -5%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
449 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.6 Crosses 15.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Dender EH
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.80 xG 0.43
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
576 Passes 195
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.07.2024 Dender EH Dender EH 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
4-1
AWAY Dender EH
4.22 xG 0.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 5
15 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
408 Passes 254
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
45 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender EH
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise swept aside Dender EH 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 57% of the ball to Dender EH's 43%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 4.22 to 0.35.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender EH?

Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 Dender EH in the Belgium - Pro League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Dender EH?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 52%, draw 28%, Dender EH 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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