13/10/2024
·
00:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-1
Ejea vs Gernika Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
44%
4-5
20%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Away Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
24%
Draw
28%
39%
Away Win
26%
50%
Under 2.5
61%
50%
Over 2.5
39%
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
49%
BTTS No
56%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ejea v Gernika — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Ejea
EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Gernika
EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% /
-6%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-6% /
-5%
1.93/1.66
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.03/1.33
+51%
/
-46%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+8%
/
-9%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
12
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
4
363 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
283 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
19.0
2.4
Yellow Cards
2.6
POST-MATCH
Ejea vs Gernika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ejea edged past Gernika 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 39% — and on the day Ejea made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
What was the final score of Ejea vs Gernika?
Ejea 1-0 Gernika in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ejea vs Gernika?
Before kick-off our model rated an Gernika win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ejea 38%, draw 24%, Gernika 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.
✗ Match Result (Gernika)
✗ BTTS Yes
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13 Oct 2024