Santos 3-2 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 13 Oct 2024

📅13/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.6
Over 2.5
36%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.16
No
61%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
4.73
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 38% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
55%
-7.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.5pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.41/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.14
+34% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
23.0 Crosses 13.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.04 xG 0.68
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
366 Passes 294
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.06.2024 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR2
12.02.2024 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BREPAU
15.01.2023 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 1-1 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BREPAU
18.02.2022 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 3-2 HT 3-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
08.03.2020 Santos Santos 3-1 HT 3-1 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BREPAU
09.02.2019 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
3-2
AWAY Mirassol FC
38% Ball Possession 62%
19 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
242 Passes 439
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Santos vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos nicked a narrow win over Mirassol FC 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 38% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 62%, shots finished 19-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Santos and 1.17 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Santos vs Mirassol FC?

Santos 3-2 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Santos 47%, draw 28%, Mirassol FC 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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