Bucaspor 1928 3-2 Karacabey Belediye Spor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 2nd Division Kırmızı Grup, 13 Oct 2024

📅13/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.6
Over
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.03
No
48%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
41%
4-5
18%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
55%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bucaspor 1928 EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Karacabey Belediye Spor EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.06/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.61
-18% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bucaspor 1928
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Karacabey Belediye Spor
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
5 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.01.2024 Karacabey Belediye Spor Karacabey Belediye Spor 1-0 HT 0-0 Bucaspor 1928 Bucaspor 1928 T2L-B
10.09.2023 Bucaspor 1928 Bucaspor 1928 1-0 HT 0-0 Karacabey Belediye Spor Karacabey Belediye Spor T2L-K
27.08.2022 Karacabey Belediye Spor Karacabey Belediye Spor 0-0 HT 0-0 Bucaspor 1928 Bucaspor 1928 T2L-K
23.10.2021 Bucaspor 1928 Bucaspor 1928 2-3 HT 1-1 Karacabey Belediye Spor Karacabey Belediye Spor T2L-K
POST-MATCH Bucaspor 1928 vs Karacabey Belediye Spor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bucaspor 1928 nicked a narrow win over Karacabey Belediye Spor 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bucaspor 1928 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Karacabey Belediye Spor led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Bucaspor 1928 and 1.00 for Karacabey Belediye Spor.

What was the final score of Bucaspor 1928 vs Karacabey Belediye Spor?

Bucaspor 1928 3-2 Karacabey Belediye Spor in the Turkey - 2nd Division Kırmızı Grup on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bucaspor 1928 vs Karacabey Belediye Spor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bucaspor 1928 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bucaspor 1928 46%, draw 28%, Karacabey Belediye Spor 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bucaspor 1928), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bucaspor 1928) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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