River Plate 0-1 CA Sarmiento — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 13 Oct 2025

📅13/10/2025 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
61%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
13%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.53
No
55%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.57
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
22.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.69
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
5%
21.2
X/1
21%
3.53
X/2
5%
16.6
X/X
11%
5.05
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
5%
16.7
2/X
10%
25.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
River Plate win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
67%
-6.1pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.1pp
13%
Away Win
12%
+2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
36%
+9.9pp
55%
BTTS No
64%
-9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 14%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.82/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.58
+16% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +8%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
375 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 70%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
23.8 Crosses 14.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CA Sarmiento
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.77 xG 0.59
74% Ball Possession 26%
22 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
556 Passes 127
86% Pass Accuracy 57%
35 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2025 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-1 HT 1-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
29.07.2024 River Plate River Plate 1-0 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
20.03.2023 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
01.08.2022 River Plate River Plate 1-2 HT 0-2 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
01.05.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-7 HT 0-3 River Plate River Plate ARJ
31.08.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 1-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
0-1
AWAY CA Sarmiento
1.51 xG 1.04
74% Ball Possession 26%
27 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 3
329 Passes 75
77% Pass Accuracy 45%
32 Box Touches 10
35 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH River Plate vs CA Sarmiento
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento nicked a narrow win over River Plate 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. River Plate carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, River Plate had 74% of the ball to CA Sarmiento's 26%, shots finished 27-7, expected goals 1.51 to 1.04 — on chances, River Plate could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for River Plate and 0.67 for CA Sarmiento.

What was the final score of River Plate vs CA Sarmiento?

River Plate 0-1 CA Sarmiento in the Argentina - Premier League on 13/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs CA Sarmiento?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split River Plate 61%, draw 26%, CA Sarmiento 13%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (River Plate) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (River Plate) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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