Ceuta 3-2 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 14 Jan 2024

Ceuta
3-2 HT 1-0
Malaga
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
4.5
6+ Goals
10%
24.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.43 — our 34% vs market 33.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.41/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.24
+25% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +85% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta squeezed past Malaga 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and on the day Ceuta made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Malaga?

Ceuta 3-2 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Malaga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 32%, draw 30%, Malaga 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Malaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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