Gimnastica Torrelavega 1-2 Pontevedra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.68
Over
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
45%
4-5
22%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-5.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimnastica Torrelavega EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontevedra EU Bookmakers 52%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.00/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/0.64
+5% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +36%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
292 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimnastica Torrelavega
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Pontevedra
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
5 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Pontevedra Pontevedra 1-2 HT 1-2 Gimnastica Torrelavega Gimnastica Torrelavega İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimnastica Torrelavega
1-2
AWAY Pontevedra
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gimnastica Torrelavega vs Pontevedra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontevedra squeezed past Gimnastica Torrelavega 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pontevedra as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gimnastica Torrelavega had 43% of the ball to Pontevedra's 57%, shots finished 11-8.

What was the final score of Gimnastica Torrelavega vs Pontevedra?

Gimnastica Torrelavega 1-2 Pontevedra in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimnastica Torrelavega vs Pontevedra?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pontevedra win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gimnastica Torrelavega 28%, draw 29%, Pontevedra 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pontevedra) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pontevedra) ✗ Under 2.5
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