Parma 1-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 14 Jan 2024

Parma
1-1 HT 0-0
Ascoli
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.43
6+ Goals
9%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.18
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.35
X/1
20%
3.63
X/2
6%
9.8
X/X
12%
4.42
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
12%
8.61
2/X
7%
17.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Parma win — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.1pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -8%
1.40/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.48
-1% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.8 Crosses 16.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Ascoli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.04 xG 0.99
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.10.2023 Ascoli Ascoli 1-3 HT 1-2 Parma Parma İTB
18.02.2023 Parma Parma 0-1 HT 0-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
17.09.2022 Ascoli Ascoli 1-3 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTB
18.04.2022 Parma Parma 0-1 HT 0-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
05.12.2021 Ascoli Ascoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTB
16.04.2018 Ascoli Ascoli 0-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
1-1
AWAY Ascoli
1.89 xG 0.95
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
493 Passes 201
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
37 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parma vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma and Ascoli couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Parma at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Parma had 66% of the ball to Ascoli's 34%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.89 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parma had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Parma and 0.67 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Parma vs Ascoli?

Parma 1-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie B on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Parma 50%, draw 26%, Ascoli 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Parma), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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