14/01/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
2-1
Frechen vs Germania Erftstadt Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
Over Pick
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1
20%
2-3
41%
4-5
26%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
57%
Home Win
80%
20%
Draw
11%
23%
Away Win
8%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Frechen v Germania Erftstadt — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Frechen
The Market 85%
Head to Head
AWAY
Germania Erftstadt
The Market 11%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
56%
Ball Possession
44%
18
Total Shots
8
8
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
3
508 · 87%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
304 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Frechen vs Germania Erftstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Frechen ran out comfortable winners over Germania Erftstadt 4-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Frechen as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Frechen vs Germania Erftstadt?
Frechen 4-0 Germania Erftstadt in the Friendlies on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Frechen vs Germania Erftstadt?
Before kick-off our model rated a Frechen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Frechen 57%, draw 20%, Germania Erftstadt 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Frechen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Frechen)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
14 Jan 2024