Go Ahead Eagles 2-3 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
41%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.61
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.49
No
38%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
5.59
2-3 Goals
38%
2.01
4-5 Goals
30%
2.62
6+ Goals
16%
6.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.57
1/2
7%
20.35
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
12%
8.61
X/2
7%
4.54
X/X
8%
5.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
34.0
2/2
28%
2.29
2/X
5%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
25%
+11.2pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
41%
Away Win
52%
-10.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.5pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
63%
-0.7pp
38%
BTTS No
37%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 56%
-13% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
1.45/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.53
+10% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -28%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.2
21.0 Crosses 19.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Ajax
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.49 xG 1.91
28% Ball Possession 72%
4 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
186 Passes 631
66% Pass Accuracy 88%
8 Box Touches 60
10 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.04.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
01.10.2022 Ajax Ajax 1-1 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
27.02.2022 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 2-1 HT 2-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
07.11.2021 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
31.10.2018 Ajax Ajax 3-0 HT 2-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOK
07.05.2017 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 2-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
2-3
AWAY Ajax
2.90 xG 2.02
39% Ball Possession 61%
24 Total Shots 17
12 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
275 Passes 471
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
37 Box Touches 40
23 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax squeezed past Go Ahead Eagles 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 41% — and on the day Ajax made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Go Ahead Eagles had 39% of the ball to Ajax's 61%, shots finished 24-17, expected goals 2.90 to 2.02 — the balance of chances actually favoured Go Ahead Eagles.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.50 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?

Go Ahead Eagles 2-3 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Go Ahead Eagles 36%, draw 23%, Ajax 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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