Leyton Orient 1-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.75
No
59%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.91
6+ Goals
9%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 34% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.74
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
12%
5.46
X/2
8%
5.68
X/X
13%
4.34
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
17%
3.96
2/X
10%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+3.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
30%
Away Win
35%
-4.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.7pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 38%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
0.66/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.01
-54% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +43%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
Crosses 25.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leyton Orient
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Derby County
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.39 xG 2.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
210 Passes 230
66% Pass Accuracy 66%
14 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2024 Derby County Derby County 3-0 HT 2-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
09.12.2023 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leyton Orient
1-1
AWAY Derby County
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
0 Passes 0
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leyton Orient vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leyton Orient and Derby County shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Leyton Orient at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Leyton Orient had 47% of the ball to Derby County's 53%, shots finished 15-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Leyton Orient and 3.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Leyton Orient vs Derby County?

Leyton Orient 1-1 Derby County in the England - FA Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leyton Orient vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leyton Orient win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Leyton Orient 41%, draw 29%, Derby County 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Leyton Orient), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leyton Orient) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
14 Jan 2025
22:45 Mansfield Town vs Wigan Athletic Analysis →
22:45 Preston North End vs Charlton Athletic Analysis →