Derby County 3-0 Leyton Orient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

Derby County
3-0 HT 2-0
Leyton Orient
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Derby County vs Leyton Orient Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.47
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
28%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 26% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.9
X/1
13%
3.52
X/2
8%
13.1
X/X
13%
5.51
2/1
10%
24.45
2/2
14%
11.0
2/X
5%
19.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
64%
-15.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.2pp
28%
Away Win
14%
+13.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Leyton Orient — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +25%
1.57/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.05
-5% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +83%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
374 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
25.7 Crosses 14.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3

Derby County vs Leyton Orient Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Leyton Orient
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.82 xG 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 8
309 Passes 211
74% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İN1

Derby County 3-0 Leyton Orient — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
3-0
AWAY Leyton Orient
2.46 xG 0.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 4
152 Passes 209
57% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 6
33 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Leyton Orient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County ran out comfortable winners over Leyton Orient 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Derby County had 48% of the ball to Leyton Orient's 52%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 2.46 to 0.27.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Leyton Orient?

Derby County 3-0 Leyton Orient in the England - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Leyton Orient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Derby County 48%, draw 24%, Leyton Orient 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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