Port Vale 2-4 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
35%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.81
6+ Goals
10%
16.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.6
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
11%
4.16
X/2
12%
7.49
X/X
9%
4.72
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
14%
5.85
2/X
9%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-12.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
36%
Away Win
25%
+10.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.14/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.36
-12% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
265 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 72%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
23.2 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Exeter City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.72 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
189 Passes 238
60% Pass Accuracy 66%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
18.02.2023 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
05.11.2022 Port Vale Port Vale 2-3 HT 1-1 Exeter City Exeter City FAK
06.08.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 4-0 HT 2-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
07.05.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
22.03.2022 Port Vale Port Vale 0-0 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
2-4
AWAY Exeter City
0.65 xG 1.66
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
256 Passes 377
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City saw off Port Vale 4-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Exeter City found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Port Vale had 44% of the ball to Exeter City's 56%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.65 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Port Vale and 1.17 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Exeter City?

Port Vale 2-4 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 37%, draw 28%, Exeter City 36%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Port Vale), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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