Preston North End 2-1 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 14 Feb 2024

Preston North End
2-1 HT 1-0
Middlesbrough
📅14/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Preston North End vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.37
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
10%
6.19
X/2
15%
4.9
X/X
13%
4.5
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
21%
3.15
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.3pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Preston North End v Middlesbrough — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Preston North End EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +14%
1.23/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.10
+7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
317 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
18.2 Crosses 17.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Preston North End vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Preston North End
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.77 xG 1.62
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
305 Passes 407
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.11.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-0 HT 3-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
18.03.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4-0 HT 1-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
29.10.2022 Preston North End Preston North End 2-1 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
07.05.2022 Preston North End Preston North End 4-1 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
23.11.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-2 HT 1-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
16.03.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 1-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL

Preston North End 2-1 Middlesbrough — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Preston North End
2-1
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.16 xG 0.97
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
227 Passes 457
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Box Touches 39
8 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Preston North End vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Preston North End squeezed past Middlesbrough 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Preston North End had 37% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 63%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.16 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Preston North End and 2.17 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Preston North End vs Middlesbrough?

Preston North End 2-1 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 14/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Preston North End vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Preston North End 30%, draw 28%, Middlesbrough 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Middlesbrough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ BTTS Yes
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