Gamba Osaka 2-5 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Feb 2025

📅14/02/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.32
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
16%
4.95
X/2
15%
6.22
X/X
12%
4.13
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
11%
4.72
2/X
9%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.62/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.31
+6% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
16.6 Crosses 17.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.94 xG 0.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
376 Passes 332
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.10.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
06.05.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
28.10.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JLK
03.05.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.03.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
2-5
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.00 xG 1.72
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
332 Passes 462
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka ran out comfortable winners over Gamba Osaka 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gamba Osaka at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 44% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 56%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.00 to 1.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gamba Osaka and 0.83 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Gamba Osaka 2-5 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 41%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka 32%. The final score 2-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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