Hamburg vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities
Hamburg v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals
Hamburg vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Hamburg 3-2 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics
Hamburg found just enough to beat Union Berlin 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.
As we said in the preview, our model had Hamburg as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
Under the surface, possession split 56% to 44% in Hamburg's favour, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.06 to 2.26.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.67 a game for Hamburg against 1.33 for Union Berlin.
Hamburg vs Union Berlin Result & Final Score
Hamburg 3 - 2 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Hamburg vs Union Berlin Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 42%, draw 29%, Union Berlin 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.