Simba 1-0 Stade Malien Bamako — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 14 Feb 2026

Simba
1-0 HT 1-0
Stade Malien Bamako
📅14/02/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
CAF Champions League – 2025/2026

Simba vs Stade Malien Bamako Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.27
No
50%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.38
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.62
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.12
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
4%
17.6
X/1
25%
3.77
X/2
9%
10.8
X/X
14%
4.51
2/1
5%
29.0
2/2
4%
10.1
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
19.95
Value flag · 2/X at 19.95 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-3.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
40%
+10.0pp
50%
BTTS No
60%
-10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Simba v Stade Malien Bamako — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Simba EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Malien Bamako EU Bookmakers 20%
-52% / -52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.49/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-66% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 70%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
9.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Simba vs Stade Malien Bamako Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Simba
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Stade Malien Bamako
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 2.90
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 3
393 Passes 147
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
30 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.11.2025 Stade Malien Bamako Stade Malien Bamako 2-1 HT 2-0 Simba Simba CAFŞL

Simba 1-0 Stade Malien Bamako — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Simba
1-0
AWAY Stade Malien Bamako
1.19 xG 0.41
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
332 Passes 185
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Simba vs Stade Malien Bamako
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Simba nicked a narrow win over Stade Malien Bamako 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Simba as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Simba had 59% of the ball to Stade Malien Bamako's 41%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.19 to 0.41.

What was the final score of Simba vs Stade Malien Bamako?

Simba 1-0 Stade Malien Bamako in the CAF Champions League on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Simba vs Stade Malien Bamako?

Before kick-off our model rated a Simba win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Simba 54%, draw 27%, Stade Malien Bamako 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Simba), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Simba) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CAFŞL More CAF Champions League
14 Feb 2026
16:00 Mamelodi Sundowns vs MC Alger Analysis →
16:00 Al Hilal Omdurman vs Saint Eloi Lupopo Analysis →
19:00 ES Tunis vs Petro De Luanda Analysis →
22:00 Pyramids vs Power Dynamos Analysis →
22:00 RSB Berkane vs Rivers United Analysis →