Bragantino 1-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 14 Mar 2024

Bragantino
1-1 HT 0-0
Botafogo
📅14/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

Bragantino vs Botafogo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.68
Over 2.5
36%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.88
No
60%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.28
6+ Goals
7%
21.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 38% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
21%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.3pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bragantino v Botafogo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
261 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
– Crosses 18.0
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Bragantino vs Botafogo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Botafogo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.52 xG 1.01
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 Passes 228
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.03.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino LKU
12.11.2023 Bragantino 2-2 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.07.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
27.10.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
05.07.2022 Bragantino 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
17.11.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1

Bragantino 1-1 Botafogo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
1-1
AWAY Botafogo
1.49 xG 0.81
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
280 Passes 147
77% Pass Accuracy 61%
32 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino and Botafogo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bragantino at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Bragantino had 61% of the ball to Botafogo's 39%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.49 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bragantino and 1.67 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Botafogo?

Bragantino 1-1 Botafogo in the Copa Libertadores on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 43%, draw 28%, Botafogo 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bragantino), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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