Genoa 2-1 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Mar 2025

Genoa
2-1 HT 2-0
Lecce
📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Genoa vs Lecce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
36%
2.88
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.26
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
5.01
6+ Goals
8%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
18%
4.55
X/2
6%
7.89
X/X
19%
3.57
2/1
9%
32.0
2/2
12%
6.69
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.8pp
36%
Draw
31%
+5.0pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Genoa v Lecce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +16%
1.43/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.37
-2% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +57%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.8 Crosses 16.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Genoa vs Lecce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lecce
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.15 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
297 Passes 375
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.01.2025 Lecce Lecce 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
28.01.2024 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
22.09.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
19.07.2020 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
08.12.2019 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-2 Genoa Genoa İTA
11.08.2018 Genoa Genoa 4-0 HT 4-0 Lecce Lecce İTK

Genoa 2-1 Lecce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
2-1
AWAY Lecce
1.02 xG 1.36
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
250 Passes 344
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa squeezed past Lecce 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 36% / 24%) promised a tight game; Genoa found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genoa had 44% of the ball to Lecce's 56%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 1.02 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genoa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Genoa and 0.83 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Lecce?

Genoa 2-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Genoa 40%, draw 36%, Lecce 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genoa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genoa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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