Atletico Paranaense 3-1 Guarany De Bage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.29
Draw
29%
4.81
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
73%
-17.5pp
29%
Draw
18%
+11.4pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+6.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.5pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarany De Bage EU Bookmakers 12%
+12% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+13% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
32.2 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3-1
AWAY Guarany De Bage
64% Ball Possession 36%
23 Total Shots 7
12 Shots on Target 2
18 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Guarany De Bage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense saw off Guarany De Bage 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 64% of the ball to Guarany De Bage's 36%, shots finished 23-7.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Guarany De Bage?

Atletico Paranaense 3-1 Guarany De Bage in the Brazil - Cup on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Guarany De Bage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 55%, draw 29%, Guarany De Bage 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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