Nice 1-1 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Mar 2025

Nice
1-1 HT 1-0
Auxerre
📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Nice vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.18
6+ Goals
13%
10.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 28% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.0
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
12%
4.1
X/2
8%
10.65
X/X
9%
5.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.1
2/2
11%
8.58
2/X
10%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.4pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nice v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nice EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
1.84/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.79
-16% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
436 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.8 Crosses 14.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Nice vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nice
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Auxerre
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.50 xG 0.84
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
477 Passes 322
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
18.08.2024 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
06.01.2024 Nice Nice 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FRK
03.03.2023 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
16.10.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
31.10.2018 Nice Nice 3-2 HT 2-0 Auxerre Auxerre FRLK
21.04.2012 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1

Nice 1-1 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nice
1-1
AWAY Auxerre
2.17 xG 0.74
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
364 Passes 336
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nice vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice and Auxerre shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Nice at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nice had 51% of the ball to Auxerre's 49%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.17 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nice and 1.00 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Nice vs Auxerre?

Nice 1-1 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nice vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Nice 49%, draw 25%, Auxerre 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nice), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nice) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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