Auxerre 2-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 18 Aug 2024

Auxerre
2-1 HT 1-1
Nice
📅18/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
9%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 29% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.19
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
15%
5.87
X/2
17%
5.12
X/X
13%
4.34
2/1
9%
32.0
2/2
15%
3.46
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 42%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.52/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.20
-20% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 81%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.7 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Nice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.56 xG 1.70
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
316 Passes 490
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 0
06.01.2024 Nice Nice 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FRK
03.03.2023 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
16.10.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
31.10.2018 Nice Nice 3-2 HT 2-0 Auxerre Auxerre FRLK
21.04.2012 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
11.12.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
2-1
AWAY Nice
1.96 xG 0.71
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
346 Passes 426
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre nicked a narrow win over Nice 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Auxerre made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Auxerre had 45% of the ball to Nice's 55%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.96 to 0.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auxerre's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Auxerre and 1.17 for Nice.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Nice?

Auxerre 2-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 34%, draw 27%, Nice 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nice) ✗ Under 2.5
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