Montpellier 1-1 RC Strasbourg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.77
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
15%
4.82
X/2
11%
7.34
X/X
12%
4.82
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
16%
5.03
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.8pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY RC Strasbourg EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.64/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.29
+14% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
22.9 Crosses 15.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
2W-2D-2L
AWAY RC Strasbourg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.11 xG 1.57
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
392 Passes 322
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 2-2 HT 0-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
17.09.2023 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 2-2 HT 0-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
05.02.2023 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 2-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
17.09.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 2-1 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
16.01.2022 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 3-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
02.01.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-0 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
1-1
AWAY RC Strasbourg
1.41 xG 0.91
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
250 Passes 369
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs RC Strasbourg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier and RC Strasbourg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Montpellier at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Montpellier had 42% of the ball to RC Strasbourg's 58%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.41 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Montpellier and 1.67 for RC Strasbourg.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs RC Strasbourg?

Montpellier 1-1 RC Strasbourg in the France - Ligue 1 on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs RC Strasbourg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 42%, draw 26%, RC Strasbourg 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Montpellier), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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