BG Pathum United 1-0 Lamphun Warrior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.2pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+0.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.7pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Lamphun Warrior EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.37/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.21
-5% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +43%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
21.5 Crosses 12.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Lamphun Warrior
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.19 xG 1.01
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
407 Passes 189
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2024 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior 2-2 HT 1-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
02.03.2024 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior 2-0 HT 1-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
11.02.2023 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior 3-0 HT 2-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
09.09.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-0 HT 0-0 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-0
AWAY Lamphun Warrior
0.87 xG 0.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 3
274 Passes 271
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United squeezed past Lamphun Warrior 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had BG Pathum United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 50% of the ball to Lamphun Warrior's 50%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.87 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lamphun Warrior led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.75 for Lamphun Warrior.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?

BG Pathum United 1-0 Lamphun Warrior in the Thailand - 1st Division on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 51%, draw 28%, Lamphun Warrior 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BG Pathum United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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