Sofapaka 0-1 Nairobi United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
3.75
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
49%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
Over 2.5
33%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.29
No
58%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
21%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
23%
-4.1pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.0pp
49%
Away Win
48%
+1.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Nairobi United EU Bookmakers 52%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-39% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
232 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sofapaka
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Nairobi United
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
01.11.2025 Nairobi United Nairobi United 0-3 HT 0-1 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sofapaka
0-1
AWAY Nairobi United
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sofapaka vs Nairobi United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nairobi United nicked a narrow win over Sofapaka 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nairobi United as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sofapaka had 44% of the ball to Nairobi United's 56%, shots finished 6-12.

What was the final score of Sofapaka vs Nairobi United?

Sofapaka 0-1 Nairobi United in the Kenya - Premier League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sofapaka vs Nairobi United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nairobi United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sofapaka 19%, draw 32%, Nairobi United 49%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nairobi United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nairobi United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KEN More Kenya - Premier League
14 Mar 2026
14:00 Bandari vs TransMara Sugar Analysis →
14:00 APS Bomet vs Bidco United Analysis →
15:30 Mathare United vs Leopards SC Analysis →